Predictive Credit: Measuring What Scientific Explanations Add to Experimental Forecasts

arXiv:2610.00314v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled…