When better traffic forecasts fail to improve signal control: a layered diagnostic study of forecast-to-decision value

arXiv:2610.06992v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Improved traffic forecasts do not necessarily yield better signal-control decisions. We investigate this gap through a layered diagnostic study using 29 days of reconstructed demand from Xuancheng, China, with seven dates reserved for testing. The framework evaluates point forecasts, conformal intervals, dependence-aware scenarios, and matched…